Mucosal Immunology

Background Early-life respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is associated with childhood recurrent wheeze or asthma (RW/A), but causality and shared genetic liability remain unclear. Methods We combined Finnish nationwide registries and Nordic genetic cohorts. First, in 965 312 Finnish children born between 1998 and 2014, we defined severe RSV as RSV hospitalisation before age 1 year, and recurrent wheezing or asthma (RW/A) as inhaled medication reimbursement between ages 1 and 7 years, and compared medication and eosinophil trajectories by RSV history. Second, we assessed familial confounding in 527 776 full siblings and 15 667 RW/A-discordant pairs. Third, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of RSV susceptibility with meta-analysis across six Nordic cohorts (3 107 cases, 92 031 controls) and two-sample Mendelian randomisation (2SMR) using 155 asthma-associated variants. Findings RSV-associated RW/A showed higher inhaled medication use at ages 1-2 years but lower use after age 4, and lower mean blood eosinophils (0.34 vs 0.39*10e9/L; p=0.003) than RW/A without RSV hospitalisation. In RW/A-discordant sibling pairs, RSV hospitalisation was associated with RW/A (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.4-3.2), while unaffected siblings also had elevated RW/A prevalence. GWAS identified an RSV association at APBB1IP (rs787036; beta=0.209; p=8.80*10e-9). 2SMR provided no evidence that asthma genetic liability influenced RSV susceptibility. Interpretation The RSV-asthma association is unlikely to be explained by shared genetic or environmental factors, and RSV-associated RW/A shows a distinct trajectory. These findings help prioritise long-term outcomes for RSV prevention trials and monitoring. Funding: Paivikki and Sakari Sohlberg Foundation, Foundation for Pediatric Research, Sigrid Juselius Foundation, Orion Research Foundation, the Research Council of Norway.

Males incur greater risk of tuberculosis (TB) than females, but the contribution of sex-associated immune differences remains unclear. We addressed this using sex-stratified transcriptomic analyses across four independent studies spanning active pulmonary TB, subclinical TB and latent infection, in peripheral blood, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) and by using the tuberculin skin test (TST) as a standardised in vivo antigenic challenge. In blood of active TB patients, expression of TNF- and type I interferon-regulated signatures, genome-wide gene expression, and performance of leading host-response biomarkers of TB were comparable between sexes. Similarly, blood transcriptomic biomarkers showed no meaningful sex-related differences for predicting asymptomatic or incident TB. In the TST of people with latent infection, bulk and single-cell RNA sequencing identified only limited differences, largely restricted to sex chromosome-linked transcripts, with no consistent evidence of dimorphism in immune-regulated pathways. Single-cell RNA sequencing of BAL samples identified reduced abundance of B cells in male TB patients, with gene expression differences again largely restricted to sex chromosome-linked transcripts. These findings suggest that canonical immune responses associated with TB are broadly similar between the sexes, and that increased TB risk among males more likely reflects differential exposure rather than intrinsic immunological susceptibility.

We previously reported inherited RORgammaT deficiency in seven patients from three ancestries (Chilean, Palestinian, Saudi Arabian) with mycobacterial disease and chronic mucocutaneous candidiasis (CMC). We report here five additional patients from different ancestries (Afghan, Indian, Iranian, Japanese, Sri Lankan), each homozygous for a new loss-of-function RORC variant. All but one patient, the exception receiving early prophylaxis, developed mycobacterial disease due to a near-complete depletion of innate-like adaptive T cells, including MAIT and iNKT cells, low counts of adaptive TH1* and CD8+ T cells, and impaired Mycobacterium-induced IFN-gamma production by the remaining cells of these subsets, NK cells, conventional CD4+ T, Vdelta1, and Vdelta2 gamma-delta T cells. Most patients also displayed CMC due to their low counts of TH17 and TH1* cells. One patient died from disseminated Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine infection, but, unexpectedly, all the other patients are still alive and clinically stable. RORgammaT is essential for protective immunity against mycobacteria and Candida in humans.

The X-linked G-protein coupled receptor GPR174 is highly expressed in T and B lymphocytes and has immunoregulatory roles in mice, but its function in humans is unknown. We describe a cohort of six individuals who have function-disrupting variants in GPR174 and a clinical phenotype of lymphadenopathy and autoimmunity. Histological analysis of two patient lymph nodes revealed necrotizing lymphadenitis and lymphoproliferation resembling Kikuchi-Fujimoto disease. In-depth analysis of three patients and related carriers revealed overaccumulation of CD8 terminally differentiated effector memory cells re-expressing CD45RA (TEMRA). Patient cells and GPR174-deficient CD8 T cells generated from controls showed less repression of proliferation by the GPR174 ligand lysophosphatidylserine (lysoPS) and an effector-biased gene expression program. GPR174-deficient CD4 T cells were resistant to lysoPS-mediated suppression of IL2 production. In mice, chronic viral infection led to over-accumulation of GPR174-deficient effector CD8 T cells. We describe an inborn error of immunity associated with dysregulated lymphocyte responses that we propose predisposes to exaggerated lymphoproliferation and autoimmunity following viral infection.

Premature ovarian insufficiency (POI) significantly impacts quality of life, yet the immediate cognitive landscape and lived experience of younger women remain under-researched. In 125 young women (aged 19-48; 66 with idiopathic POI, 59 age-matched controls), we examined self-reported cognitive distress and symptom burden within the POI cohort and compared objective global and domain-specific cognitive performance between groups. Objective accuracy scores were derived from six online tasks (Cognitron) and combined into a robust global measure. Within the POI cohort, there were significant differences in symptom burden domains ({chi}(3) = 61.90, p<0.001), with psychological and sexual symptoms reported at a significantly higher intensity than physical and vasomotor symptoms (all p<0.001). Furthermore, the standardised magnitude of perceived cognitive distress (56.20%) was significantly greater than that of overall symptom burden (42.00%, p<0.001). Case-control comparisons revealed no significant differences in global cognitive performance (p=0.615), yet the POI cohort performed significantly less accurate than controls in verbal analogical reasoning (-0.86 SD, 95% CI: -1.52, -0.20, p = 0.011). The findings highlight an urgent need for comprehensive emotional and psychosexual support in POI care. Additionally, the presence of high cognitive distress alongside localised objective deficits demonstrates that cognitive health monitoring must be proactive in early adulthood, especially given their established long-term risks for later-life cognitive decline and dementia.

Background: Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most common secondary condition among people with spinal cord injury/disease (SCI/D). Intravesical Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus GG (LGG) is an antibiotic-sparing approach to managing urinary symptoms. Objective: Determine the optimal number of doses of intravesical LGG for urinary symptom reduction. Design: Prospective, randomized, two-arm dosing trial. Setting: National recruitment with a local subsample providing urine samples in Washington, DC, USA. Participants: Adults with SCI/D and neurogenic lower urinary tract dysfunction (NLUTD) who use intermittent catheterization (IC); 177 enrolled and randomized (intention-to-treat), with 76 compliant instillers (39 low-dose, 37 high-dose) in the per-protocol analytic sample. Interventions: Two (2 doses/24 hours) or four (4 doses/36 hours) intravesical LGG regimens, self-initiated in response to cloudier or malodorous urine per the Self-Management Protocol using Probiotics (SMP-Pro). Main Outcome Measures: Primary: proportion achieving [&ge;]20% reduction on the Urinary Symptom Questionnaire for Neurogenic Bladder-Intermittent Catheter version (USQNB-IC). Secondary: urinary biomarkers (leukocyte esterase, nitrite, white blood cells, urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin [uNGAL]) and standard urine culture (SUC) in a local subsample. Results: By Day 2, 57.9% (63.8% low-dose; 51.2% high-dose) achieved [&ge;]20% total symptom reduction; high-dose success rose to 70.0% by Day 4. Thirty percent of high-dose participants did not respond at either time point and could not be distinguished from responders by demographics or urine biomarkers. Urinary biomarkers and SUC were unchanged pre- to post-instillation. No serious adverse events were adjudicated as attributable to intravesical LGG by an independent Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB). Conclusions: A two-dose course of intravesical LGG yields clinically meaningful symptom improvement in the majority of people with SCI/D and NLUTD who use IC; four doses benefits a meaningful subgroup of two-day non-responders, while a small cohort remains nonresponsive. These results provide preliminary dosing guidance and support progression to a definitive trial.

Background: Clinical guidelines recommend objective tests to diagnose asthma in school-age children, but their availability and use in routine practice remain uncertain. We evaluated asthma diagnostic practices in Switzerland, focusing on first-line tests (spirometry, bronchodilator reversibility testing, and fractional exhaled nitric oxide [FeNO]). Methods: Cross-sectional, nationwide online survey of primary care paediatricians (PCPs) and respiratory specialists. We assessed access to and use of diagnostic tests, focusing on first-line tests, and examined reasons for non-use, referral practices, and guideline consultation. We used multivariable logistic regression to identified factors associated with spirometry access among PCPs. Results: Of 1,055 respondents, 625 diagnosed asthma in children, including 419 PCPs. Among PCPs, 50% (95% confidence interval [CI] 45-55) reported no access to spirometry and 95% (95% CI 92-97) no access to FeNO, whereas all paediatric respiratory specialists and almost all adult respiratory specialists had access to both tests. Barriers to first-line testing among PCPs included economic constraints and difficulties interpreting test results. Spirometry access was lower in French- and Italian-speaking regions than in German-speaking regions (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.09, 95% CI 0.05-0.15), but higher among PCPs working full-time (aOR 2.04, 95% CI 1.11-3.82) and those using Swiss asthma guidelines (aOR 1.71, 95% CI 1.01-2.92). PCPs without spirometry access more frequently referred children to specialists for diagnostic confirmation (89% versus 80%; p=0.019). Conclusion: Many PCPs in Switzerland lack access to guideline-recommended tests. Improving access, reimbursement, and training in test interpretation may help reduce the gap between guidelines and clinical practice.

Background. UK clinical guidance recommends that structured risk prediction tools and risk stratification should not be used in self-harm, to predict suicide or determine who is offered treatment. Underpinning this position is the premise that routinely collected health data contain no useful predictive signal, which has received little direct scrutiny. Objective. To test whether routinely collected electronic health record data can distinguish groups at higher and lower risk of severe outcomes following paracetamol overdose. Methods. We analysed 4,095 adults presenting to NHS Lothian emergency departments with paracetamol overdose (2017-2023). Elastic-net logistic regression was fitted to 37 routinely collected electronic health record features to predict a composite of death or mental health inpatient admission at 0-7, 8-30 and 31-365 days following attendance, evaluated on a held-out 20% test set with bootstrapping. Findings. Events occurred in 5.5% of patients at 0-7 days, 2.0% at 8-30 days and 7.9% at 31-365 days, dominated by mental health admission. Bootstrap AUROC 95% confidence intervals lay above 0.5 in every window (0.65-0.82, 0.63-0.90, 0.71-0.85): models ranked patients better than chance. Calibration slopes (1.04, 1.14, 1.07) were close to one. Ranking drew primarily on mental health-related features. Conclusions. Routinely collected health data carried predictive signal for severe outcomes after paracetamol overdose, although discrimination fell short of what is needed for individual-level clinical use. Clinical implications. These models are not proposed for clinical deployment; however, treating risk prediction as a settled question will redirect research efforts, potentially excluding this patient population from machine learning advances driving improvements in care in other medical specialties.

Estimating dengue force of infection (FOI) is essential for understanding transmission dynamics and targeting intervention programmes, yet surveillance data in endemic settings required for estimations are often incomplete, with varying formats. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical catalytic model that jointly fits age-stratified case data, aggregate case data, and seroprevalence surveys within a single framework, incorporating external covariates to improve parameter identifiability. Synthetic validation showed that covariates alone recovered accurate FOI point estimates even when most districts contributed only aggregate data, but did so with poorly calibrated uncertainty; anchoring the model with a single seroprevalence survey was necessary to bring credible interval coverage close to nominal. Applied to 128 districts across Java and Bali, Indonesia (2016-2024), the model revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity in FOI and reporting rates. Many districts in Java exceeded the WHO-suggested seroprevalence threshold for vaccine introduction, yet were classified as low-priority when using reported incidence as prioritisation criterion, particularly in areas with weak surveillance. Model-based seroprevalence estimation, integrating multiple data sources, offers a more consistent basis for identifying high-priority districts for vaccine introduction, and is less susceptible to surveillance bias than reported incidence.

Background and Aims The optimal treatment for first episodes and first recurrences of Clostridioides difficile infections (CDI) is unknown and there is emerging evidence for pulse and taper (P-T) regimens. Therefore, we sought to estimate the relative efficacy of treatment options. Methods MEDLINE and CENTRAL were searched from database inception to May 21, 2025 and unpublished conference abstracts were searched from recent infectious disease conferences. RCTs on the treatment of first episodes or first recurrences of CDI comparing fixed-dose or P-T regimens of fidaxomicin or vancomycin were included. The primary and secondary outcomes were 40- and 56-day CDI recurrence, respectively. A random-effects network meta-analysis on the risk ratio (RR) scale was conducted using a standard regimen (10-14 days) of vancomycin as the comparator. Treatments were ranked using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). Results 8 RCTs were included comprising a total of 2181 patients. For 40-day recurrence, fidaxomicin P-T had the highest probability of ranking best (RR=0.10, 95%Confidence Interval [95%CI]=0.10-0.49, SUCRA=1.00), followed by vancomycin P-T (RR=0.49, 95%CI=0.32-0.76, SUCRA=0.61), fixed-dose fidaxomicin (RR=0.61, 95%CI=0.49-0.76, SUCRA=0.39), and, finally, fixed-dose of vancomycin (SUCRA=0.00). The treatments ranked in the same order for 56-day recurrence, though only 3 RCTs reported on this timepoint. Conclusion Vancomycin P-T, fidaxomicin P-T, and fixed-dose fidaxomicin were all superior to a fixed-dose vancomycin. Head-to-head comparative effectiveness RCTs are needed to quantify their relative effect sizes of and impact on long-term prevention of recurrent CDI.

Background The 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak highlighted the critical need for robust genomic surveillance capabilities to track mpox virus (MPXV) evolution and transmission dynamics. Methods Building upon our established SARS-CoV-2 sequencing infrastructure, we implemented a Molecular Loop probe-based long-read sequencing approach using Pacific Biosciences Sequel II technology for comprehensive MPXV genomic surveillance across the United States (US). From August 2024 to June 2025, we generated 326 high-quality whole genome sequences from residual mpox-positive clinical specimens collected by Labcorp across all 10 US Department of Health and Human Services regions. Results Our analysis identified two samples containing clade Ib MPXV in January and June 2025 and captured shifting trends in clade IIb diversity, with 13 distinct lineages observed. We also identified multiple instances of large (~1.6-17.6kb) deletions proximal to the inverted terminal repeats in clade IIb genomes. APOBEC3 mutation analysis indicated substantial evidence of human-to-human transmission among both clades. Further, we observed significantly higher APOBEC3-associated SNPs per kilobase (P<0.001) in clade IIb genomic variable regions relative to their central conserved region. Our assay exhibited strong reproducibility across biological replicates from individual patients and accuracy was confirmed via parallel sequencing of select specimens by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) using metagenomic sequencing. We also demonstrated via custom simulation that our assay discriminates all known MPXV clades and lineages, including those we have not observed in the US. Conclusions Our integrated nationwide surveillance system facilitates real-time genomic tracking of outbreak evolution, with demonstrated capacity across SARS-CoV-2 and MPXV, positioning this platform for rapid deployment during future pathogen emergence.

Background: Large language models (LLMs) struggle with dynamic, longitudinal clinical reasoning. We developed a Multi-Stage Iterative Clinical Reasoning Agent framework to address this gap and systematically decouple the clinical efficacy of static retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) from dynamic self-refinement. Methods: Ten complex longitudinal nephrology cases, rigorously selected via a modified Delphi consensus technique, were blindly evaluated by four board-certified nephrologists and a multi-model AI panel. We compared three architectures across nine cognitive steps: (Model A) a baseline frontier LLM, (Model B) an LLM augmented with static guideline-based RAG, and (Model C) our proposed multi-agent framework featuring RAG integrated with iterative self-critique and refinement. Results: In human evaluations (20-point scale), Model C (mean 17.2, SD 1.2) significantly outperformed both Model A (16.1, 1.3) and Model B (16.2, 1.2) (P < 0.001). Implementing static RAG (Model B) yielded no significant improvement over the baseline. Automated AI evaluations (15-point scale) corroborated these findings: Model C (14.7, 0.6) outscored Model A (14.2, 0.9, P < 0.001) and Model B (14.3, 0.9, P = 0.01). While monolithic models exhibited severe score degradations in planning-heavy tasks such as dynamic differential diagnoses, the multi-agent framework effectively intercepted error cascades, achieving significantly higher diagnostic accuracy (mean 17.6, P = 0.019) and therapeutic management scores (17.3, P = 0.002). Conclusions: Static knowledge retrieval alone fails to enhance frontier LLM performance in longitudinal medical reasoning. Distributing clinical workflows into a multi-agent dynamic refinement pipeline significantly improves reasoning completeness, intercepts error cascades, and safely resolves planning bottlenecks in complex patient care.

Background: Monoclonal antibodies have emerged as a prophylactic strategy to prevent symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in immunocompromised individuals. However, the evolutionary and clinical implications of breakthrough infections under this regime remain unclear. Methods: A male in their 80s with a haematological/oncological diagnosis received a 2000 mg intravenous infusion of sotrovimab in March 2023 and was diagnosed with COVID-19 by RT-qPCR from a nasopharyngeal swab in August 2023. Weekly samples (n=24) were collected through February 2024 (171 days). All samples underwent whole-genome sequencing, with select mutations subjected to functional assessment. Findings: Sequencing identified the GE.1 lineage at all timepoints. An intra-host recombination event in ORF1ab (positions 8942-12458) was detected prior to 23 weeks post-detection, followed by a 14-fold increase in viral load (7.42e+06 to 1.00e+08 RNA copies/mL) and a marked shift in the viral population. E340D, a sotrovimab resistance mutation, was detected at low abundance (46%) within the first week post-infection, fluctuated over time, and was nearly fixed by week 15 (107 days) post-detection. We assessed five spike mutations - V36M, S98F, and V213G in the N-terminal domain, Y505P in the receptor-binding domain, and P681Q near the S1/S2 cleavage site - and additionally evaluated the impact of E340D. V36M conferred the highest infectivity across all cell lines, with the most significant effect in low-TMPRSS2 cells. While all mutations showed enhanced infectivity with the addition of E340D, the effect was most pronounced in mutations with lower baseline infectivity. The addition of E340D significantly decreased relative neutralizing titres for V36M, S98F, and V213G, enabling escape from neutralizing antibodies in XBB-responsive individuals, illustrating an enhanced phenotypic advantage. Patient neutralizing activity was absent pre-sotrovimab, and sotrovimab-induced neutralization was further compromised by selection of E340D. Interpretation: Sotrovimab pre-exposure prophylaxis in an immunocompromised patient did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection, and selected for resistant mutation E340D, with unexpected fitness consequences across non-receptor binding domain spike regions.

Background: Opioid use disorder (OUD) is heritable, yet most genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have focused on European populations, leaving the genetic architecture of OUD in non-European populations underexplored. Methods: We conducted GWAS of OUD across three ancestries using electronic health records and genomic data from 52,357 All of Us Research Program participants (8,912 cases; 43,445 matched opioid-exposed controls; 48.5% female). Participants were stratified into European (EUR), African (AFR), and Admixed American (AMR) ancestry groups for logistic regression GWAS, with independent replication in the Million Veteran Program. We then applied the deep-learning model AlphaGenome to predict the tissue-specific transcriptomic and splicing consequences of top risk variants across 13 reward-pathway brain regions. Results: We identified and replicated a novel DDX6 risk locus, alongside established OPRM1 and FURIN signals. AlphaGenome predicted the DDX6 regulatory allele downregulates the stress-resistance gene FOXR1 in the nucleus accumbens, while the protective OPRM1 variant (rs1799971) upregulates OPRM1 expression across reward networks. Other signals of interest included IL6R and SHISA9 (EUR); GHR (AFR); and ASTN2 (AMR). Conclusions: This study identifies DDX6 as a novel OUD risk locus, replicates associations with OPRM1 and FURIN, and highlights biologically plausible ancestry-specific signals in AFR and AMR populations. We also replicated top variants in an independent population. Finally, integrating GWAS with deep-learning annotations provides specific, localized biological hypotheses to guide future experimental validation and targeted therapeutics.

Stochastic epidemic models are a cornerstone of infectious disease epidemiology and are often used to study intervention scenarios. However, large run-to-run variability can make intervention effects difficult to estimate precisely. We revisit the epidemic Sellke construction, which assigns each individual an infection threshold for the cumulative infection hazard such that, conditional on the thresholds, the epidemic trajectory becomes deterministic. This enables coupling of simulations with and without an intervention, yielding low-variance effect estimates even when outcomes such as final size or peak incidence vary widely between runs. We develop an exact, event-driven implementation that maintains infection and recovery events in priority queues. Cumulative infection-hazard updates require O(log N) time per event, yielding overall complexity O(Elog N) for E events in a population of size N. The implementation achieves computational performance comparable to the classical Gillespie algorithm while naturally accommodating non-Markovian infectious periods and complex infectiousness profiles. We illustrate the approach using distance-dependent spread of avian influenza between poultry farms in the Netherlands and a multilayer population with households, schools, and workplaces. In both examples, coupling enables efficient within-run comparisons of intervention scenarios across stochastic realisations.

Background: Children born prematurely (before 37 weeks) or admitted to the neonatal unit (NNU) are at increased risk of adverse long-term physical health outcomes. It is also recognised that there is an association with later academic performance and special educational needs, however it is not clear whether these broad risk factors could be used as stand-alone heuristics to identify children who may benefit from additional support in educational settings. We aimed to examine the associations between neonatal unit (NNU) admission and educational attainment in mid-childhood. Methods and Findings: Pregnancy data from a prospective birth cohort (Pregnancy Outcome Prediction Study, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2008-2012) were linked to national educational outcomes (Department for Education, United Kingdom). Multivariable regression models adjusted for maternal, child, and socioeconomic factors were used to evaluate associations between (i) all NNU admissions, (ii) at term NNU admissions >48 hours, (iii) preterm birth without ongoing physical health needs, and educational outcomes at ages 5-11 years. Children who required any NNU care were more likely not to meet expected educational standards across multiple ages and domains in early and mid-childhood: age 5 early year foundation (aOR 1.64, 95% CI 1.19-2.27, p=0.003), phonics at age 6 (aOR 2.43, 95% CI 1.72-3.57, p<0.001), and at age 7 (here assessments were divided into multiple domains): reading (aOR 1.67, 95% CI 1.18-2.38, p=0.004), writing (aOR 1.72, 95% CI 1.25-2.38, p<0.001), mathematics (aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.09-2.22, p=0.020), and science (aOR 1.85, 95% CI 1.22-2.78, p=0.003). Similar patterns were observed among both at term-born infants who stayed >48hrs in NNU (phonics assessment at age 6 aOR 2.26, 95% CI 1.51-3.36, p<0.001) and in children born preterm without long-term physical health sequelae (phonics assessment at age 6 aOR 3.07, 95% CI 1.96-4.81, p<0.001). These associations were robust to adjustment for demographic, perinatal, and socio-economic factors. By age 11, differences in academic attainment were attenuated and no longer clearly distinguishable across all exposure groups. However, there was an increased likelihood of special educational needs (SEN) at age 11 associated with any NNU admission (aOR 1.78, 95% CI 1.15-2.73, p=0.009), at term NNU admission for >48hrs (aOR 1.88, 95% CI 1.19-3.00, p=0.007), and children born preterm without long-term physical health sequelae (aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.00-2.25, p=0.049). Predictive performance of any NNU admission for SEN at age 11 was moderate (AUC 0.70, 95% CI: 1.14-2.65, p=0.010), with balanced sensitivity and specificity and high negative predictive value. Conclusions: NNU admission, for both term and preterm infants, is associated with poorer educational outcomes and an increased likelihood of special educational needs in mid-childhood.

Background: Actigraphy-derived rest-activity rhythm (RAR) features are widely used to characterize clinical states in bipolar disorder (BD). Both mean levels and temporal variability of these features have been associated with mood episodes; however, variability measures are often statistically coupled with the mean, particularly in skewed distributions. This raises a question as to whether variability reflects a separate characteristic of the data or whether the observed association arises from statistical properties of the data. Objective: In this study, we aim to determine whether temporal variability of actigraphy-derived RAR features provides standalone information on mood episodes in BD beyond mean activity levels after accounting for mean-variance dependence. Methods: We analyzed actigraphy data from a subset of 72 participants with BD drawn from a larger longitudinal study, extracting 22 daily RAR features aggregated weekly as sample mean (MEAN) and within-week temporal variability computed as sample standard deviation (VAR). Variance-stabilizing transformations (Box-Cox or Yeo-Johnson) were applied to the entire study cohort to reduce mean-variance dependence. Associations with mood episodes and remission (mania: n=34; depression: n=58 annotated participants) were evaluated using generalized linear mixed-effects models with a logistic link function, including univariate (MEAN or VAR) and multivariate (MEAN+VAR) specifications, assessed by likelihood-based metrics and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: Transformations reduced mean-absolute correlations from 0.43 to below 0.06. Temporal variability remained significantly associated with clinical state for 11/22 RAR features in mania and 16/22 features in depression, with all significant associations remaining after false discovery rate correction (p<0.05). Joint models showed modest incremental gains (AUC 3%-4% overall; up to 12% in mania, 7% in depression), with absolute performance remaining limited (AUC 0.50-0.66). In both mania and depression, nearly all significant variability-based regressors contributed incremental information beyond mean-based models. Only sleep duration and activity changes around wake time (+-1 hour), did not improve discrimination between mania and remission. Conclusions: Temporal variability in RAR features can be considered a standalone state marker of mood episodes not captured by mean activity. We found it to be more consistently associated with depression than mania. Its incremental discriminative contribution is modest, suggesting greater utility within multivariate or multimodal frameworks.

Background Post-infection conditions (PICs), such as Long Covid, are associated with heterogeneous, fluctuating symptoms that profoundly affect daily functioning. Despite moderate-certainty evidence from the NIHR-funded LISTEN trial (COV-LT2-0009) that personalised self management support improves outcomes and may reduce societal and economic impacts of Long Covid, many people living with PICs still receive condition-specific services, generic advice, or stand-alone digital tools that do not address their complex needs. Aim To map care approaches in general practice and synthesise UK evidence for PIC management. Design and setting Scoping review and online survey. Method A two-phase study was conducted: (1) a scoping review of UK evidence on PIC management in general practice; and (2) a supplementary online survey of practitioners working in UK general practice to provide contextual insights. Results The scoping review identified 32 studies focused on Long Covid. One study included a comparator group (ME/CFS). Study populations were predominantly white ethnicity and female. Evidence for non-Covid PICs in UK general practice was largely absent. The supplementary survey (n=46) provided preliminary practice-level insights. Healthcare practitioners reported varied PIC presentations, diagnostic uncertainty, limited referral pathways, inequitable access, and low confidence in managing PICs. Conclusion Evidence informing PIC management in UK general practice remains predominantly Long Covid-focused and may not reflect the range of PICs encountered in practice. While survey findings are preliminary and require confirmation in larger samples, they highlight uncertainty around PIC management. Further research is needed to evaluate whether existing Long Covid pathways should be expanded or complemented by broader PIC models. Keywords general practice; Long Covid; self-management; post-viral syndromes

Objective: There is a bidirectional relationship between emotional distress and pain. However, this relationship is understudied in people with HIV in low-resource settings. This study sought to describe the temporal relationship between emotional distress and pain in people with HIV. Design: Longitudinal observational study. Methods: Participants with virally suppressed HIV, reporting either no pain or persistent pain at baseline, provided weekly remote ratings of distress, worst pain, and average pain using 0-10 visual analogue scales. Within-individual fluctuations in distress and pain were visualised over time. Group-level correlations were determined using Spearman's correlation tests. Cumulative link mixed models assessed whether distress and pain each predicted the other in the following week. Results: 72 participants provided responses over 49 weeks. The participants had a median (IQR) age of 43 (37-51) years, 63% (n=45) were unemployed and most were females (n=51;71%). Distress and pain fluctuated concurrently within individuals: distress was positively correlated with worst pain ({rho}=0.66, 95% CI= 0.60-0.72, p<0.001) and average pain ({rho}=0.70, 95% CI=0.64-0.75, p<0.001) intensity within the same week. Worst pain (OR=1.42, 95% CI=1.17-1.71, p<0.001) and average pain (OR=1.43, 95% CI=1.20-1.71, p<0.001) intensity both predicted distress in the next week. Distress predicted worst pain intensity (OR=1.25, 95% CI=1.07-1.46, p=0.023) but not average pain intensity (OR=1.19, 95% CI=1.01-1.40, p=0.152) in the next week. Conclusions: The temporal relationship between distress and worst pain intensity was bidirectional, whereas distress did not temporally predict average pain intensity. Both pain and emotional distress should receive attention from HIV research and clinical care in low-resource settings.

Lithium has been the gold standard for the treatment and prevention of relapse in bipolar disorder for over 60 years. Guidance from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence states explicitly to 'offer lithium as a first-line, long-term pharmacological treatment for bipolar disorder'. Yet, in the last two decades its use has been in decline with clinicians favouring anticonvulsants or antipsychotics when treating this condition. In this study, we have used three openly available datasets containing prescribing data from primary and secondary care to explore trends in the use of lithium in England, showing both regional and temporal variance between 2015-2024. We have shown that lithium use declined in primary care by 20.9% in the last ten years (2015-2024) and 10.9% overall in the last five years (2019 to 2025). We have also shown how there is some regional variation in the source of lithium for patients, although the vast majority is prescribed in primary care. Further research into clinical behaviour is needed to understand what is driving the decrease in lithium usage, and what barriers and enablers may influence its use across the country.